Tariffs, CEPA, and MSME Push

Good morning, Chief

Here are today’s key business updates curated by the SUAR team.

Amid Uncertainty Over Trump Tariffs, Indonesia’s FX Reserves Stay Stable

Bank Indonesia reported July 2025 foreign exchange reserves at US$152.0 billion, only slightly lower than June’s US$152.6 billion. The level is considered strong, covering 6.3 months of imports, more than double international adequacy standards. Exporters caution that U.S. tariffs of 19% on Indonesian goods could test resilience, though coal and CPO remain strong buffers.
Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves from April 2025 to July 2025 were relatively stable. In April the reserves stood at USD 152.46 billion, in May USD 152.48 billion, in June USD 152.56 billion, and in July USD 151.98 billion.

The Chairman of the Indonesian Exporters Association (GPEI), Benny Soetrisno, said that potential pressures ahead still need to be monitored, especially from U.S. tariff policy that sets a 19% import tariff on products from Indonesia, which could affect national export performance. Leading commodities such as coal and CPO are expected to remain the main pillars supporting the resilience of Indonesia’s external sector.

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MSMEs’ Path to Europe: When a Trade Deal Becomes a New Opportunity

As the Indonesia–European Union Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IEU-CEPA) is finally concluded after a lengthy process, many are placing high hopes on the deal.
In fact, even before CEPA was formally agreed, Indonesia had already recorded a trade surplus with Europe. Exports to the region reached USD 9.6 billion in January–June 2025, making Europe Indonesia’s second-largest trading partner after ASEAN. Now, with friendlier tariffs and preferential schemes, export potential to Europe is expected to surge.
Mulya Amri, Executive Director of the Kadin Indonesia Institute, said Europe is willing to support capacity building. Mulya emphasized the importance of traceability—the ability to track product origins—which is a mandatory requirement in the European market. Collaboration among Europe, the Indonesian government, and Kadin is aimed at preparing small businesses to be export-ready.

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Combating Digital Crime, Banks Tighten Mitigation and Collaboration

Banks in Indonesia are strengthening strategies to prevent digital financial crime, focusing on education, advanced technology, and cross-agency collaboration. This responds to rising new schemes such as the buying and selling of bank accounts or “takeover” accounts that have caused significant losses to the public.
Perbanas Head of Legal and Compliance Fransiska Oei explained that banks have undertaken various preventive efforts. One key step is comprehensive education for customers, the public, and internal staff on digital-crime risks and emerging modus operandi.
Banking observer and President Director of PT Penyelesaian Transaksi Elektronik Nasional (PTEN) Arianto Mudiotomo said banks are continually strengthening prevention through advanced technology. According to him, Indonesian banks have implemented anomaly-detection systems based on machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) to monitor suspicious transaction patterns in real time.

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Government Urges MSMEs to Boost Exports to ASEAN

On Thursday (7/8/2025), the government called on Indonesian micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) to intensify exports to ASEAN using various digital platforms, without the need for face-to-face meetings.
The UMKM Bisa Ekspor program has facilitated around 773 MSMEs, with transaction values reaching USD 90 million (approximately Rp1.4 trillion).
Cross-border e-commerce in the ASEAN region plays an important role in strengthening Indonesia’s exports, particularly for MSMEs.

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Diversifying Indonesia’s Export Markets from the U.S. to the European Union

The Indonesia–European Union Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IEU-CEPA) and Trump’s new tariff policy will shift Indonesia’s export landscape toward greater diversification. Exports to the European Union have the potential to increase, while exports to the United States will not necessarily contract.
The United States is Indonesia’s second-largest export market after China. Indonesia–U.S. trade in 2024 reached about US$42.9 billion. With Indonesia’s exports to the U.S. at US$26.3 billion, Indonesia recorded a goods trade surplus of US$16.8 billion. Indonesia’s main exports to the U.S. include electrical and electronic equipment, apparel, animal/vegetable oils and fats, and footwear.

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ASEAN Online Sale Day (AOSD) 2025: AOSD 2025 is the annual online shopping event organized by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to promote cross-border e-commerce within the region. The event runs 8–10 August 2025 under the theme “A Click to Prosperity,” providing a platform for a wide range of businesses, including MSMEs, to promote their products and services to millions of consumers across Southeast Asia. Participants can offer exclusive discounts and promotions identifiable by the AOSD logo. In Indonesia, the event is supported by the Ministry of Trade, emphasizing collaboration with e-commerce platforms to support local MSME exports. More details: https://onlineasean.com/index.html

Bank Indonesia Consumer Survey – July 2025: On Friday, 8 August 2025, Bank Indonesia is scheduled to release results of its July 2025 Consumer Survey, a monthly survey measuring consumer confidence in Indonesia’s economic conditions. Key indices to be presented include the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI/IKK), the Current Economic Conditions Index (IKE), and the Consumer Expectation Index (IEK). Full results can be accessed via Bank Indonesia’s website.

“Employ the wise, the brave, the greedy, and the foolish. The wise delight in establishing merit; the brave in carrying out their will; the greedy hasten after profit; the foolish disregard death. Use each according to their true nature—this is a subtle art of command.” — Sun Tzu (Chinese strategist)