Chasing Growth in the Remaining 5 Months of 2025

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The following is important information related to the development of the business universe that needs attention today based on the curation of the SUAR Team.

International Institutions' Projections: Indonesia's Economy to Slow Down

Today, Tuesday (5/8/2025), the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) plans to release the economic growth achievements for the second quarter of 2025. A number of international institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, ABD, and OECD have issued economic forecast reports for 2025 and 2026. Their reports have a common thread that the Indonesian economy is expected to slow down.

Despite the various forecasts of international institutions, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani said that she is optimistic that Indonesia's economic growth in the second quarter of 2025 will be maintained to serve as a foundation for the economy in 2025 to grow at around 5.0. Positive consumption and purchasing power as well as resilient business activities are also supported by the role of the State Budget in carrying out the functions of allocation, distribution, and stabilization.
Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) Executive Director Mohammad Faisal said that his party projects Indonesia's economic growth in the second quarter of 2025 to slow down to the range of 4.7 - 4.8%, down from 4.87% in the first quarter. Throughout 2025, growth is expected to be at the level of 4.6 - 4.8%.

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Banking is expected to remain stable until the end of the year

Amid various pressures of global uncertainty and various indications of a slowdown in the domestic economy, the Financial Services Authority (OJK) is optimistic that the banking sector will still show stable performance.
National banking lending reached Rp8,060 trillion in June 2025, or grew 7.77% on an annual basis. Third-party funds (DPK) reached Rp9,392 trillion, growing 6.96% on an annual basis.
The bank's capital is adequate as reflected in the June 2025 Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) level of 25.81%. The risk profile is also maintained with the Gross Non Performing Loan (NPL) level in June 2025 at 2.22%, down from 2.29% in May 2025.

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Entrepreneur Philanthropist and Sigi Farmer Success Story

Chairman of the Advisory Board of the Indonesian Philanthropy Association Fransiscus Welirang said that the business world is not only about making profits but also contributing to the development of the surrounding community. This behavior is commonly referred to as philanthropic.
Minister of National Development Planning / National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas) Rachmat Pambudy said that the business world has the financial capacity and reach to be able to participate in empowering sustainable development.
One of the success stories of philanthropy in the business world is the synergy of three collaborations between PT Syngenta Seed Indonesia and Wahana Visi Indonesia (WVI) that managed to change the fate of thousands of cocoa farmers who had fallen into decline. Through a partnership program since 2018, they introduced corn cultivation as a solution to increase income and rebuild the local economy.

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Hope to Enter "Global Supply Chain" Through European Free Trade

The government is targeting to agree on the IEU - CEPA agreement by the end of September. It is estimated that after the domestic legal and ratification process runs for 6 months, the agreement will be signed no later than the second - third quarter of 2026.
Deputy Chairman for Trade and Foreign Agreements of KADIN Indonesia, Pahala Mansuri, said that this cooperation agreement will pave the way for Indonesia to reduce its export dependence on the Chinese market.
The IEU-CEPA trade agreement not only paves the way for textiles and furniture, but also low-carbon products such as steel. The domestic steel industry now has the opportunity to penetrate the European market, which is increasingly demanding sustainability standards, especially from the automotive, construction and electronics sectors.

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International Passenger Niche for Indonesian Airlines

The country's aviation industry was hit hard by global mobility restrictions to stem the spread of the coronavirus. In 2020, the number of international airplane passengers arriving-departing-transiting at Indonesian airports was recorded at only around 7.27 million people. This number plummeted 81% compared to 2019 which recorded 37.3 million people.
The deepest fall was recorded in 2021, when the number of arriving-departing-transiting international passengers was only 1.37 million. However, after that the airline industry began to recover as mobility restrictions were lifted.
During the first five months of 2025, the number of international airplane passengers has reached 16.17 million people. The addition of new players on international routes, especially by domestic airlines, will boost the number of international passengers arriving-departing-transiting at Indonesian airports. This will have a major impact on the domestic economy, especially the tourism sector.

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BPS Releases Economic Growth: The Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) will release Indonesia's economic growth data related to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter on Tuesday, August 5, 2025 at the BPS building. The BPS release results related to Indonesia's economic growth include national GDP growth, GDP growth by business field and expenditure to GDP contribution by region. These results also become a reference and have an impact on market sentiment, investment decisions, and Bank Indonesia's monetary policy.

INDEF National Seminar on Gold Bank: INDEF's Center for Sharia Economic Development (CSED) together with Islamic-based universities is organizing a national seminar on the concept of a bullion bank. The seminar will be held on Tuesday, August 5, 2025, at 08.00 WIB at Paramadina University, South Jakarta. The seminar will be attended by various speakers from the 13th Vice President of the Republic of Indonesia, Chairman of Commission XI of the House of Representatives, CSED INDEF researchers, representatives from OJK, LPS, and many more.