Pursuing Growth as 2025 Enters Its Final Stretch

Good morning, Chief

Here are today’s key business developments, curated by the SUAR Team.

International Projections: Indonesia’s Economy Seen Slowing

Today, Tuesday (August 5, 2025): Statistics Indonesia (BPS) is scheduled to release Q2 2025 GDP results. Several international institutions—IMF, World Bank, ADB, and OECD—have issued forecasts for 2025–2026 with a common thread: Indonesia’s economy is expected to slow.

Finance Minister Sri Mulyani remains optimistic Q2 2025 growth will hold up, providing a base for 2025 GDP growth around 5.0%. She cited still-positive consumption and purchasing power, resilient business activity, and APBN support through its allocation, distribution, and stabilization functions.
CORE Executive Director Mohammad Faisal projects Q2 2025 growth to ease to 4.7%–4.8% (from 4.87% in Q1). Full-year 2025 growth is expected at 4.6%–4.8%.

Read more here.

Banking Seen Stable Through Year-End

Amid global uncertainty and signs of domestic slowdown, the Financial Services Authority (OJK) remains optimistic the banking sector will stay stable.
National bank lending reached Rp8,060 trillion in June 2025, up 7.77% y/y. Third-Party Funds (DPK) totaled Rp9,392 trillion, growing 6.96% y/y.
Capital remains ample, with CAR at 25.81% (June 2025). Risk profile is contained: gross NPL at 2.22% in June, down from 2.29% in May.

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Philanthropic Business Leaders and the Success Story of Sigi Farmers

Fransiscus Welirang, Chair of the Advisory Board of the Indonesian Philanthropy Association (Perhimpunan Filantropi Indonesia), said business is not only about profits—companies can also contribute to community development through philanthropy.
Rachmat Pambudy, Minister of National Development Planning/Bappenas, noted that businesses have the financial capacity and reach to help drive sustainable development.
A standout example: a three-way collaboration among PT Syngenta Seed Indonesia, Wahana Visi Indonesia (WVI), and partners has transformed the lives of thousands of struggling cocoa farmers in Sigi. Since 2018, the partnership introduced corn cultivation to raise incomes and rebuild the local economy.

Read more here.

Hopes to Enter the “Global Supply Chain” via European Free Trade

The Government aims to conclude the IEU–CEPA agreement by end-September. After a roughly six-month legal and domestic ratification process, the deal is expected to be signed by Q2–Q3 2026.
Pahala Mansuri, KADIN Indonesia Vice Chair for Trade and International Agreements, said the pact will help reduce Indonesia’s export dependence on China.
The agreement would open doors not only for textiles and furniture, but also for low-carbon products such as steel. Domestic steel makers could access the European market, which is increasingly demanding sustainability standards—particularly in automotive, construction, and electronics.

Read more here.

International Passenger Niche for Indonesian Airlines

Aviation Recovery & Opportunity, Indonesia’s aviation industry plunged during global mobility restrictions to curb the coronavirus. In 2020, international air passengers (arrivals, departures, and transits) at Indonesian airports fell to 7.27 million, down 81% from 37.3 million in 2019.
The trough came in 2021, with only 1.37 million international passengers. As restrictions eased, the sector began to recover.
In the first five months of 2025, international passengers reached 16.17 million. More Indonesian carriers entering international routes would further lift passenger numbers—benefiting the domestic economy, especially tourism.

Read more here.

BPS to Release Q2 GDP: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) will release Q2 2025 GDP on Tuesday, August 5, 2025, at BPS headquarters. The release covers national GDP growth, GDP by industry and expenditure, and regional contributions—key inputs for market sentiment, investment decisions, and Bank Indonesia’s monetary policy.

INDEF National Seminar on a “Gold Bank”: CSED INDEF, together with Islamic-based universities, will hold a national seminar on the bullion bank concept on Tuesday, August 5, 2025, at 08:00 WIB, at Universitas Paramadina, South Jakarta. Speakers include the 13th Vice President of Indonesia, the Chair of DPR Commission XI, CSED INDEF researchers, and representatives from OJK, LPS, and others.