Optimism Builds as Growth Beats Expectations

Good morning, Chief

Here are today’s key business updates, curated by the SUAR team.

Consumption and Investment Lift Q2 Growth

Indonesia’s economy grew 5.12% year-on-year in Q2 2025, according to the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), supported by a surge in household spending during Eid al-Fitr (Lebaran) and solid investment. The figure tops earlier forecasts of below 5%.
Household consumption accounts for 54% of GDP. Investment grew 6.99% year-on-year.
Analyst View, Ajib Hamdani, an economic policy analyst at Apindo, calls it the “Rojali–Rohana paradox.” On the one hand, the phenomenon of rombongan jarang beli and rombongan hanya nanya-nanya is still felt; on the other, BPS data show consumption and investment jumped. “Our prediction at the time was in the 4.69%–4.81% range,” Ajib said.

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Ahead of New Tariffs, Indonesia’s CPO Exports to the U.S. Still Look Promising

Indonesia’s crude palm oil (CPO) exports to the United States remain promising despite a 19% import tariff set to take effect on August 7, 2025. GAPKI Chairman Eddy Martono said Indonesia is relatively fortunate, as the originally planned 32% rate was reduced to 19%.
By the numbers (GAPKI): Export volume rose from 1.5 million tons (2020) to 2.5 million tons (2023), before easing to 2.2 million tons (2024). Export value in 2024 reached USD 2.9 billion. Indonesia’s market share in the U.S. stood at 89% in 2024.
Eddy emphasized market diversification to anticipate potential further trade tensions that could affect China and the European Union. “Latin America and Africa are being explored as alternative markets,” he said.

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Strategies to Curb Financial Crime Beyond Account Freezes

Government plan: Beyond freezing accounts, authorities will shut down thousands of online gambling sites, block dormant bank accounts, and encourage public reporting of suspicious activity.
As of end-June 2025, the Financial Services Authority (OJK) recorded Rp 4.1 trillion in public losses, with Rp 348.3 billion in victim funds successfully frozen.
PPATK chief Ivan Yustiavandana said estimated online gambling turnover that could have reached Rp 981 trillion in 2024 was reduced to Rp 359 trillion, thanks to efforts by banks, regulators, and the task force. He spoke at the National Strategy to Combat Financial Crime event on August 5, 2025.

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Public Holidays and School Breaks Spur Tourism and Consumption

In Q2 2025, Indonesia’s holiday season fueled a surge in economic activity. Domestic tourist trips rose 22.32% year-on-year, while Jasa Marga toll-gate transactions increased 2.86% quarter-on-quarter.
Domestic trips reached 331.37 million in Q2 2025, up 22.32% from a year earlier. International arrivals climbed 13.96% to 3.89 million. For the first half of 2025, Indonesia recorded 113.78 million domestic trips and 7.05 million international visits.
The momentum lifted transportation and warehousing by 8.52%, and accommodation and food & beverage by 8.04%.

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Manufacturing Commodities Bolster Indonesia’s Exports

Five-year dominance: The manufacturing sector has led Indonesia’s export value over the past five years. Key outbound products include animal/vegetable fats and oils, iron and steel, and machinery and electrical equipment.
H1 2025 performance: Non-oil-and-gas exports reached US$128.39 billion, up 8.96% year-on-year—providing a tailwind for H1 GDP.
Top destinations: Exports to the United States rose 20.71%, China 8.37%, and Thailand 45.2%. Shipments to India and Japan fell 16.19% and 21.42%, respectively.

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IMOX & IGEX 2025 — The Indonesia Marine Offshore Expo (IMOX) and Indonesia Oil and Gas Expo (IGEX) return 6–8 August 2024, 10:00–17:00 WIB, at Radisson Golf and Convention Center, Batam. These international energy and maritime exhibitions bring together global companies in Indonesia’s oil, gas, and shipyard industries. With 3,000+ industry professionals expected, the shows will explore current issues across the energy and maritime sectors.

DTI-CX 2025 — The Digital Transformation Indonesia Conference & Expo takes place 6–7 August 2025 at the Jakarta International Convention Center (JICC), Senayan. Dedicated to IT professionals and policymakers, DTI-CX connects technology solutions across 13 industries through an exhibition, conference, international tech pavilion, business-match meetings, tech workshops, and live demos. Organized by PT ACE, Kominfo, MASTEL, and APJII, the event features 350+ tech solutions, 60+ strategic conference sessions, and 300+ speakers. Info on free access and schedules is available at: https://digitaltransformation.co.id/about-dti-cx/