Beware of "Dumping" and Hope in the Third Quarter

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The following is important information related to the development of the business universe that needs attention today based on the curation of the SUAR Team.

Beware of Import "Dumping" After Trump's Tariff Ruling

The 19 percent export tariff adjustment for a number of commodities from Indonesia, which was announced by US President Donald Trump, does not fully benefit the domestic industry. A big country like China has strong potential to diversify the market for its various products to get around the trade war with the US. Thus, superior commodities from the bamboo curtain country such as textiles and textile products and steel are considered to flood the domestic market.

Chairman of the Indonesian Fiber and Filament Yarn Producers Association (Apsyfi) Redma Gita Wirawasta said that his party highlighted the amount of tariffs for China. Because, talking about China and competing countries in the textile industry, Redma is worried that the domestic market share can also be brushed off. In fact, when profits from exports stagnate, the domestic market is the only hope to survive and continue production.

Textile companies, especially in the upstream sector, are always missed by imported Chinese goods. Redma said, the reason is because the Ministry of Industry (Kemenperin) always recommends the fulfillment of raw materials for the textile and garment industry sourced from Chinese imports. The flood of Chinese imports was triggered because there were allegations of quota games so that there were a number of companies that became import proxies.

Turning to the steel commodity, the trend of steel exports from China has begun to move up. According to an analysis by SMInsight's steel and mining industry expert, Widodo Setiadharmaji, apparently China's exports of finished steel products reached 58.15 million tons from January to June 2025 or during the escalation of Trump's tariff period. This export amount increased by 9.2 percent when compared to the same period the previous year.

As for Indonesia, imports of finished steel from China increased from 1.29 million tons to 1.34 million tons, or about 3.9 percent in the period from January to April 2025, according to data from the Global Steel Trade Monitor (GSTM). This number does not include imports of semi-finished products, which jumped from 39 thousand tons to 830 thousand tons.

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The Two Faces of Robot and AI Paradox in Employment

Citing a World Bank report titled "Jobs of the Future: Robots, Artificial Intelligence, and Digital Platforms in East Asia and the Pacific" released June 25, 2025 reveals the paradox of the impact of this cutting-edge technology.

The use of robots reportedly spurred industrial employment growth in China and Vietnam. In Vietnam for example, the adoption of robots increased employment by 10% and wages by 5%, especially for young and skilled workers.

However, the blessings of growth are uneven and not happening in other countries. A total of 1.4 million low-skilled workers in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, were displaced to the informal sector between 2018-2022.

Chairman of the Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo) Manpower Division Bob Azam highlighted the shifting skill needs and adaptation measures taken by the industrial sector in facing this challenge.

Since the last decade, automation and robotization have penetrated various sectors, not only manufacturing but also administrative work. "Those repetitive (technical) jobs are definitely getting smaller and smaller," he told Suar (18/7/2025).

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A Glimmer of Hope in the Third Quarter

Although there are still many challenges, the business world expects the economy to improve in the third quarter. Supporting factors include increased spending on construction projects, a revitalized wholesale trade & automotive sector, and an improved agricultural sector.

This is reflected in the Business Activity Survey (SKDU) released on Friday (18/7/2025), stating that business activities in the third quarter of 2025 continued to increase as reflected in the results of the Weighted Net Balance (WNB) of respondents at 11.98 percent. This figure increased compared to the second quarter of 2025 which was at 11.70 percent.

The domestic business world does need an injection of confidence in revival. This is because, in the last six months, the economy has been sluggish.

This is reflected in the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Quoting the S&P research institute, Indonesia's PMI position in June at the level of 46.9 decreased compared to May which was at the level of 47.4. An index position below 50 indicates contraction, while above 50 indicates expansion.

Josua Pardede explained that this condition was supported by improving public perceptions of current economic conditions and stable expectations of future economic conditions. In addition, according to him, retail sales also showed a positive increase, mainly driven by demand during school holidays, Eid al-Adha National Religious Holidays (HBKN), as well as mid-year promotions.

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GIIAS Relied on to Boost Financing Company Performance

The 2025 Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show (GIIAS) automotive exhibition is considered to be a strategic momentum to encourage the growth of vehicle financing, especially cars. Finance companies take advantage of this event to introduce various credit programs, attractive promos, and ease of transactions to prospective buyers.

Chairman of the Indonesian Finance Companies Association (APPI), Suwandi Wiratno, called GIIAS a big promotional event for the automotive industry. "There they invite the public, introduce new models and technologies, and offer various purchase promos," Suwandi said when contacted by telephone, Sunday (20/7/2025).

Car financing programs are the main focus of Astra Financial at GIIAS 2025. Astra Credit Companies (ACC) and Toyota Astra Financial Services (TAF) offer loan interest rates starting at 2.3 percent for tenors of 1 to 3 years, and 4.5 percent for tenors of 4 to 5 years.

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According to data from the Indonesian Central Securities Depository (KSEI) in June 2025, capital market investors are dominated by Gen Z, which is reflected in 54.2 percent of investors from this age group. Following behind Gen Z are millennial generation investors (31-40 years old) with a portion of 24.81 percent of the total number of investors.

Investors aged 41-50 years were at 12.25 percent, followed by investors aged 51-60 years with 5.75 percent, and investors aged 60 years and over with 2.95 percent.

Despite dominating the number of investors in the capital market, the investment value of Gen Z is actually the smallest compared to other generations at IDR 41.3 trillion. It is natural because Gen Z investors are filled with many new employees with entry-level income levels . Meanwhile, investors over 60 years old dominate having the highest investment value with a value of IDR 924.44 trillion.

The high participation of Gen Z in the capital market cannot be separated from the increasing activity of financial advisors or influencers on social media. To prevent Gen Z from falling for the wrong advice, the Financial Services Authority (OJK) has issued a regulation that requires financial advisors who actively promote products on social media to be licensed as investment advisors.

Continue reading here.

The peak of the 78th National Cooperative Day Commemoration: The commemoration of National Cooperative Day, which carries the theme "Build Cooperatives from the Village, Indonesia Jaya", is planned to be attended by President Prabowo Subianto. The event is planned to be held in Bentangan Village, Klaten, Central Java, Monday (21/7/2025). It is planned that on this occasion, the government will launch the establishment of 80 thousand Merah Putih Village Cooperatives as part of a grand strategy to build economic independence, equitable development and eradicate poverty at the village level.

Online Transportation Driver Demonstration: The online motorcycle taxi drivers' alliance plans to hold another rally on Monday (21/7/2025). It is planned that an estimated 5,000 online ojek and taxi drivers will rally in front of the Presidential Palace. One of the main points of their demands is to ask for the fee deduction from the application to be reduced to 10 percent, while currently it is 20 percent.