Bank Indonesia (BI) announced that economic liquidity or broad money supply (M2) grew 8.3% year-on-year ( YoY) in November 2025. In addition to an increase in net bills to the central government, bank lending, which grew 7.9% in November 2025, also drove this growth. This signal is expected to trigger real consumption in the fourth quarter of 2025, which will determine the annual economic growth rate.
Executive Director of the Communications Department at Bank Indonesia, Ramdan Denny Prakoso, explained that the recorded M2 growth of Rp9,891.6 trillion was driven by the growth of narrow money (M1) of 11.4% YoY, amounting to Rp5,748 trillion, which was driven by the growth of rupiah savings that can be withdrawn at any time, as well as currency outside commercial banks and rural banks.
In addition to M1 growth, quasi money also grew by 5.9% YoY to Rp4,099.2 trillion, supported by growth in other savings, which reached 16.6% YoY, and growth in foreign exchange current accounts of 6.4% YoY. Rupiah current accounts in November 2025 also grew by 14.8% YoY to Rp2,089.3 trillion.
"The growth of M2 in November 2025 was mainly influenced by net bills to the central government and credit distribution. Net bills to the central government grew 8.7% YoY, while credit distribution in November was recorded at Rp8,196.4 trillion, growing 7.9% YoY," Denny explained in a written statement received by SUARon Monday (12/22/2025).
In detail, Working Capital Loans grew 2.5% YoY to Rp3,455 trillion, supported by growth in the construction and services sectors. Investment Loans grew 17.8% to Rp2,406 trillion, sourced from the transportation and communications sectors, as well as the manufacturing industry. Meanwhile, Consumer Credit grew by 7.2% to Rp2,335.4 trillion, with home ownership loans (KPR) and multipurpose loans being the two largest contributors.
Although most loans experienced growth, BI noted UMKM loans UMKM by 0.7% to Rp1,493.8 trillion, deeper than the contraction in October 2025 of 0.1% with a loan value of Rp1,498.5 trillion.
"The contraction was driven by micro and medium-scale credit, which contracted by -5.5% YoY and -0.6% YoY, respectively. Based on the type of use, the contraction in UMKM credit UMKM November 2025 was influenced by negative growth in working capital credit, which reached -4.1%, worth IDR 1,011.2 trillion," he said.
With this overall picture, throughout November 2025, the banking sector managed to collect third-party funds amounting to Rp9,217.9 trillion, growing 8.5% YoY. Savings growth of 8.8% was the main driver that compensated for the slowdown in current account and time deposit growth.
Stimulate consumption
The growth in economic liquidity, higher credit distribution, and the increase in the consumer confidence index as announced recently are early signs of an improvement in public perception of economic conditions and have triggered household consumption towards the end of the year.
Previously, Chairwoman of the Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo) Shinta W. Kamdani assessed that this improved sentiment is very important for the business world, especially as household consumption will typically be the driving force, taking advantage of seasonal drivers at the end of the year. Moreover, with government stimulus and spending beginning to have an impact, transactions and demand can be further boosted.
"However, we need to observe whether this situation is sentiment-driven or truly robust. Currently, the recovery in the manufacturing sector has not been evenly distributed across all subsectors, and rising commodity prices may hold back consumer spending. This means that this improvement needs to be confirmed by a recovery in real consumption indicators in the near future," he said.
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Shinta hopes that the positive momentum at the end of 2025 will not be lost. The key is consistency in purchasing power stimulus, acceleration of quality government spending, food price stability, and improvement of the business climate to maintain public consumption and production activities so that they can return to solid levels in early 2026.
Sharing Shinta's view, Apindo Deputy Chair Sanny Iskandar stated that, in addition to demand and liquidity availability, the business world continues to consider interest rate trends and stability when applying for credit.
"Many companies are still cautious about taking out long-term loans because interest rates remain relatively high and demand is still not stable enough. We believe that business confidence will improve if borrowing costs and global demand show consistent signs of strengthening in the near future," he said.
Aggregate demand foundation
Without commodity price controls and the availability of consumer goods, an increase in money supply can trigger inflation. Therefore, political economy analyst Nadia Restu Utami from Laboratorium Indonesia 2045 (Lab45) believes that amid declining purchasing power, credit growth that has not reached the lower limit of 8% reflects uncertain income expectations and economic prospects.
"New investment and consumption will grow only if there is effective demand in the market. In times of uncertainty, banks become more cautious in extending credit due to increased default risk, while businesses are reluctant to borrow. As a result, credit tends to stagnate despite abundant liquidity," he said.
Before implementing expansionary monetary policy, the government needs to ensure that the foundations of aggregate demand are sufficiently strong through job creation that strengthens people's purchasing power. Thus, increased real demand will cause credit demand to grow organically, with or without incentives from the central bank.
"The synergy between pro-demand fiscal policies and expansionary monetary policies is key to preventing the economy from becoming trapped in prolonged credit demand stagnation," Nadia concluded.
