Bank Indonesia on Monday (20/10/2025) announced that lending in the third quarter of 2025 grew positively with a net balance outstanding (SBT) value of 82.33%, slightly down from the previous quarter with a SBT of 85.22% but higher than the same period last year with a SBT of 80.64%.
Meanwhile, a number of economists suggested that banks are expected to extend credit with easing to boost consumption at the end of the year and pursue aggressive growth in the fourth quarter.
Executive Director of Bank Indonesia's Communication Department Ramdan Denny Prakoso stated that the results of the BI survey this time indicated that new credit disbursements remained positive, although banks showed higher caution compared to disbursements in the previous quarter, especially in the aspects of administrative requirements, collateral, credit approval fees, credit ceilings, and credit terms.
"The standard of lending in the third quarter of 2025 was indicated to be more cautious than in the second quarter of 2025, reflected in the Lending Standard Index (ILS) for all types of credit which was positive at 5.78," Ramdan explained in a written statement published on the Bank Indonesia website.
Growth opportunities can be seen when credit is broken down into sectors. Currently, the slowdown is only seen in Working Capital Loans with a CBR of 85.09% which is slightly lower than Q2 with a CBR of 88.34%.
Meanwhile, investment loans and consumer loans remained relatively stable, with SBT levels of 76.97% and 56.61% respectively.
Among consumer loans, unsecured loans increased by 62.31% (Q2, 46.13%), multipurpose loans increased by 60.33% (Q2, 26.40%), and motor vehicle loans increased by 35.50% (Q2, 10.96%).
In terms of business sector, the increase in credit demand occurred in the real estate sector; the government administration, defense and social security sector; and the financial intermediary sector.
Meanwhile, mortgage/apartment ownership loans (KPR/KPA) declined by 48.29% (Q2, 53.26%), as did credit card usage which declined by 43.57% (Q2, 69.80%). In terms of business sector, the decline in credit demand occurred in the manufacturing industry sector, as well as the agriculture, hunting, and forestry sector.
Remains promising
This positive growth in the third quarter provides a promising outlook for credit growth at the end of 2025.
"BI predicts that new lending will increase significantly in the fourth quarter of 2025 with the SBT value reaching 96.40%," said Ramdan.
This was driven by the outlook for economic conditions, interest rate policies, and relatively manageable risks in lending.
Bank Indonesia noted that the main priorities of respondents in channeling new loans in the fourth quarter of 2025 were the same as the previous period, namely Working Capital Loans, followed by Investment Loans and Consumer Loans.
Mortgage/KPA distribution is predicted to remain the top priority, followed by multipurpose loans and unsecured loans. Meanwhile, from the business sector, the manufacturing sector, the wholesale and retail trade sector, and the financial intermediary sector will be the largest distribution targets.
In the fourth quarter, BI predicted a looser lending standard policy compared to the previous quarter. This is indicated by the negative fourth quarter ILS of 5.95.
"Looser lending standard policies occur in the types of investment loans, working capital loans, and UMKM loans. Looser lending policies include the credit period, collateral, and credit interest rates," the survey report states.
The opportunity to channel credit more loosely has received a positive response from the banking industry.
Executive Vice President Corporate Communication & Social Responsibility of Bank Central Asia (BCA) Hera F. Haryn stated that lending performance will be in line with Indonesia's economic conditions and the sectors targeted will be calculated based on these conditions.
"BCA will continue to encourage lending to various segments and sectors, while considering the precautionary principle with the implementation of disciplined risk management," Hera explained in a written statement received. SUARMonday (20/10/2025).
Hera added that as one of the contributors to the national bank's lending performance, by September 2025, BCA's total loans had grown by 7.6% YoY to Rp944 trillion, while maintaining the quality of the company's financing. "We are targeting credit growth of 6%-8% in 2025," concluded Hera.
Meanwhile, earlier in September, Bank Mandiri closed the second quarter of 2025 with a solid performance. The bank's total consolidated assets reached Rp 2,514.68 trillion or grew 11.4% on an annualized basis, driven by lending of Rp 1,701 trillion which rose 11% and exceeded the national banking industry average.
The financing growth, which was evenly distributed throughout Indonesia, was mostly absorbed in productive sectors such as construction, energy, trade, and labor-intensive industries. The non-performing loan ratio (NPL) was also maintained at 1.08%, emphasizing the principle of prudence in business expansion.
In terms of fundraising, Bank Mandiri recorded third party funds (DPK) of Rp 1,828 trillion or grew 10.7% yoy, with a low-cost fund ratio (CASA) reaching 78.4%.
"The credit growth we achieved shows Bank Mandiri's active role in supporting productive financing in various strategic sectors. Credit acceleration is focused on strengthening national economic performance while providing benefits to the wider community. Therefore, we will continue to maintain Bank Mandiri's credit growth above the industry average," said Bank Mandiri Finance & Strategy Director Novita Widya Anggraini.
This growth is an important foundation for cost of funds efficiency and strengthening liquidity. Mandiri noted that the Livin' by Mandiri Super App is now used by 32.9 million users with transaction volume reaching 2.23 billion times, while the Kopra by Mandiri platform posted a transaction value of Rp 12,170 trillion, up 22% yoy. These two platforms are the driving force behind the digitalization of banking services, both for retail and corporate customers.
Stay cautious
The encouragement from the government's fiscal and monetary policies allows banks to enjoy leeway in disbursing and growing new credit demand until the end of 2025. However, caution is not only needed in determining debtors, but also in paying attention to the economic situation and conditions.
Perbanas Institute lecturer Arianto Muditomo believes that BI's Q4 credit growth forecast is still relatively realistic, despite the slowdown in Q3. This is because historically, the last quarter shows an increase in financing demand in line with the increase in domestic consumption activities and government spending ahead of year-end.
"With the support of the government's fund injection of IDR 200 trillion to Himbara banks, which has the potential to strengthen financial system liquidity, banks have additional ammunition to expand lending to productive sectors such as UMKM, agriculture, and regional infrastructure," Arianto explained when contacted on Monday (20/10/2025).
The economist, who currently serves as President Director of PTEN Indonesia, said that the smoother liquidity factor could reduce the cost of funds and provide room for a reduction in lending rates so that expansion opportunities are open.
In addition, seasonal factors such as the increase in retail demand during Christmas and New Year, the disbursement of government infrastructure funds, the realization of SOE budgets, property promotions, mortgage interest rate discounts, and the easing of the Loan to Value policy also provided additional impetus for the increase in credit.
"However, banks need to remain cautious given the global risks and cost of funds pressures that are still high can restrain the aggressiveness of planned credit expansion," he said.
Deputy Director of the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF) Eko Listiyanto reminded that the credit slowdown in the third quarter cannot be separated from economic challenges, ranging from the absence of momentum to encourage acceleration to political and security turmoil at the end of August.
"My estimate is that in the fourth quarter there will be an increase in credit demand, at least on an annual basis, the credit rate is likely to be at the level of 9% YoY. The trigger is Christmas and the new year will encourage an increase in business production and increased vacation and tourism activities," said Eko to SUAR in Jakarta, Monday (20/10/2025).
Sharing Arianto's view, Eko also believes that accelerated state and local budget spending in the fourth quarter will boost transactions in the retail sectors. The combination of these factors will help increase the pace of credit on an annual basis, although the cumulative acceleration will still be below the annual target of 11%-13%.
