The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) reported that Indonesia's trade balance in September 2025 again recorded a surplus of USD 4.34 billion. This achievement marks the continuation of a positive trend for 65 consecutive months since May 2020.
BPS Deputy for Distribution and Services Statistics Pudji Ismartini said that the cumulative trade surplus from January to September 2025 reached USD 33.48 billion, an increase of USD 11.30 billion compared to the same period the previous year.
"The surplus from January to September 2025 was supported by non-oil and gas commodities amounting to USD 47.20 billion, while oil and gas commodities still experienced a deficit of USD 13.71 billion," Pudji said during a press conference at his office, Jakarta, Monday (3/10/2025).
Indonesia's export value in September 2025 was recorded at USD 24.68 billion, an increase of 11.41% compared to September 2024. Meanwhile, imports reached USD 20.34 billion, up 7.17% on an annual basis. The higher export performance than imports kept the trade balance in surplus, although the size of the surplus decreased compared to August 2025.
Cumulatively, Indonesia's exports from January to September 2025 increased by 8.14% compared to the same period last year. The highest increase occurred in the processing industry sector with a value of USD 167.85 billion or grew 17.02%. This sector became the main contributor to national exports as the added value of natural resource-based manufacturing products increased.
Indonesia's three largest export destinations are China, the United States, and India, contributing 41.81% of total non-oil and gas exports. Export value to China amounted to USD 46.47 billion, dominated by iron and steel, mineral fuels, and nickel products. Exports to the United States reached USD 23.03 billion which included electrical machinery and equipment, knitwear, and footwear. Meanwhile, exports to India were recorded at USD 14.02 billion.
In terms of imports, the total value of January to September 2025 reached USD 176.32 billion, up 2.62% compared to the same period the previous year. The increase mainly occurred in capital goods with a value of USD 35.90 billion, or grew 19.13%.
The largest country of origin of non-oil and gas imports was China with a value of USD 62.07 billion, followed by Japan worth USD 11.01 billion, and the United States USD 7.33 billion. The non-oil and gas trade surplus is still supported by major commodities such as animal or vegetable fats and oils worth USD 25.14 billion, mineral fuels USD 20.15 billion, iron and steel USD 14.11 billion, nickel products USD 6.50 billion, and precious metals and jewelry USD 5.41 billion.
Competition between countries
Chairman of the Indonesian Export Companies Association (GPEI) Benny Soetrisno assessed that the trade balance surplus trend that has been going on for 65 consecutive months is good news for the national economy.
However, Benny reminded that the decline in the surplus value in September 2025 needs to be taken seriously. According to him, this shrinkage could be caused by a decrease in trade volume due to tariff policies in a number of export destination countries and increased pressure on commodity prices.
Benny explained that competition between countries in the Southeast Asian region is getting tighter, especially between Indonesia and Vietnam, which have similar manufacturing industry structures.
"We compete with Vietnam in America and Europe because they have better efficiency and market access," he said.
Sectors such as shoes, apparel, textiles, furniture, and handicrafts, he said, are the arena for direct competition in the increasingly open global market.
For natural resource-based commodities, Benny believes that Indonesia still has an advantage over Vietnam.
"Agriculture is different, we have palm oil, Vietnam does not," he said.
Products such as palm oil, spices, and mining materials remain the mainstay of exports to partner countries such as China and India, where China absorbs a lot of iron, steel, and nickel, while India is an important market for Indonesian spices.
In addition to external factors, Benny believes that export financing is still a big challenge for businesses. He highlighted the Indonesian Export Financing Agency (LPEI) which was formed to support export financing, but according to him, it is not flexible enough because it still follows the rules of general banking.
The institution, for Benny, should be more agile and able to adjust to the needs of exporters. Benny also encourages national banks to play an active role in export financing, for example by lowering lending rates and expanding access to credit for businesses.
Furthermore, Benny encouraged the government to tighten supervision on non-urgent imports and expand export markets to non-traditional regions such as the Middle East, South America, and Africa. Imports should only be done for goods that cannot be produced domestically.
"If we already have the goods, the quality is good, the price is competitive, there should be no need to import. It's the same as killing our own industry," said Benny.
As predicted
Previously, Head of the Macroeconomic and Financial Market Research Department of Permata Bank, Faisal Rachman, through the Permata Institute for Economic Research (PIER) report noted that Indonesia's trade balance surplus in September 2025 decreased to USD 4.34 billion from USD 5.49 billion in August. Faisal assessed that the decline occurred as imports increased after several months of slowing down. Cumulatively, PIER recorded a surplus value from January to September 2025 of USD 33.48 billion, in line with data released by BPS.
PIER explained that exports grew 11.41% on an annual basis in September 2025, while on a monthly basis it fell 1.14% due to adjustments after the implementation of reciprocal tariffs. Export growth was mainly supported by an increase in the price of crude palm oil (CPO) and precious metals, while coal prices declined both on a monthly and annual basis.
"Improvements in manufacturing PMI indices in most major trading partners helped maintain external demand, although commodity price pressures are still a limiting factor," he said.
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PIER also noted that imports increased by 7.17% on an annual basis and 4.42% on a monthly basis, indicating increasing domestic demand in line with growth-oriented government policies. Going forward, PIER estimates that the pace of imports has the potential to be faster than exports, which could put pressure on Indonesia's net export performance. PIER also projects the 2025 current account deficit to widen moderately to around 0.81% of GDP, with foreign exchange reserves in the range of USD 150 to 156 billion, and the rupiah exchange rate in the range of IDR 16,200 to 16,400 per USD by the end of the year.
