The Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) had fallen from the psychological point of 8,000. However, now the JCI is back up and is even expected to continue to rise due to a number of positive sentiments.
Fluctuations in the stock market reflected in the volatility of the JCI in last week's trading and this week's trading shows the dynamics of an active and volatile capital market. From this symptom, any correction that may occur in the remainder of this week's trading is expected to be only technical in nature, while maintained investor confidence sends a signal that the economy remains safely under control.
The JCI last week showed a weakening of 2.57% to 7,906 at the close of trading on Friday (17/10/2025). This figure managed to rebound 2.19% to 8,115 at the opening of trading on Monday (20/10/2025) and experienced a steady increase. Most recently, trading on Tuesday (21/10/2025) closed 1.84% higher at 8,238.08.
Retail Equity Analyst Indo Premier Sekuritas Indri Liftiany Travelin Yunus assessed that the strengthening of the JCI this week occurred after last week's trading had touched an all-time high level of 8,288, but closed down by 4.14% with foreign net selling in the regular market amounting to Rp4.2 trillion.
Sharing Indri's view, Indonesian Capital Connection Analyst Alfred Nainggolan said a number of factors influenced the JCI's volatility that occurred in the range of 7,854-8,117 in trading between last week and this week. However, Alfred emphasized that of the stocks that drove the volatility, the dynamics of the stock floor were relatively reasonable and explainable.
"The JCI correction last Friday was contributed by DSSA, BREN, BRPT, CUAN, and DCII which were the main contributors to the JCI to the 8,000s. On Monday, these stocks rebounded along with the increase in the shares of 4 major banks, namely BBCA, BBRI, BMRI, and BBNI," Alfred explained when contacted on Tuesday (21/10/2025).
As for Tuesday's trading, one of the drivers of a vibrant market was triggered by the decision of PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (stock code: BBCA) to buyback the Company's shares(shares buyback) that have been issued and listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) with due observance of the provisions of the prevailing laws and regulations. This corporate action was carried out in order to support the stability of share prices on the IDX.
"The share buyback period starts from October 22, 2025 to January 19, 2026, which is a maximum period of 3 (three) months starting from the date of Information Disclosure on October 20, 2025, unless terminated earlier by the Company before January 19, 2026 by taking into account the provisions of the applicable laws and regulations," said Hera F. Haryn, EVP Corporate Communication and Social Responsibility BCA.
The total value of the shares buyback is Rp5,000,000,000,000 (five trillion rupiah). The implementation of this share buyback has no material impact on the Company's financial performance and business activities.
In carrying out its operational activities, BCA always adheres to the principles of Good Corporate Governance (GCG) and complies with all applicable regulations.
The announcement made on Monday, which was accompanied by exposure to positive third quarter financial performance, also boosted BBCA shares. On Tuesday's trading, BBCA shares recorded foreign purchases (net buy) worth Rp1.3 trillion.
Upward trend
Regarding this week's trading forecast, both Indri and Alfred said that the JCI has the potential to strengthen due to the projected BI Rate cut and the release of important US economic data.
"This week Bank Indonesia is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.5%. The cut will be one of the main sentiments affecting the Indonesian capital market this week, along with the release of initial jobless claims and a projected slight increase in US annual inflation to 3%," Indri explained in a written statement received by SUAR, Tuesday (21/10/2025).
Market sentiment that will occur during this week, according to Alfred, is due to two factors. First, the announcement of the BI Board of Governors Meeting results on Wednesday, October 22, 2025. Second, the remaining momentum of Prabowo Subianto's one year in office will still affect trading this week. Specifically, in the October 2025 BI Board of Governors Meeting, market consensus expects BI Rate to cut interest rates again.
"This is positive for economic growth, but at the same time a sensitive sentiment for the banking sector. However, if you look at the impact of the previous BI Rate reduction on the JCI, the increase at the beginning of this week was relatively high, especially amid the ongoing foreign net selling trend," he said.
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Suar Team
Alfred cautioned that despite the gains, a correction could still take place this week given that the potential for an increase in stocks after the announcement of BI's RDG is quite large. However, the nature of the correction is more technical in nature, following significant gains earlier this week.
To anticipate corrections that may occur in stock trading this week, the Financial Services Authority (OJK) emphasized that it will continue to supervise capital market activities in a measured manner, by ensuring that the Auto Rejection Upper (ARA) and Auto Rejection Lower (ARB) parameters continue to function optimally.
"In our opinion, yesterday's correction is still within reasonable limits. Investors also need controlled volatility. If it is going up, there must be profit-taking, and vice versa. The asymmetric ARB mechanism that we have will detect that," said OJK Capital Market Supervisor Chief Executive Inarno Djajadi when contacted. SUAR.
Agreeing with Inarno, Professor of Finance and Capital Markets at the Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia Budi Frensidy said that although the correction was worrying, this week's stock market fluctuations were relatively normal.
"As long as there are certain parties who have large funds with an interest in raising or maintaining the index, high increases can occur, regardless of the net selling trend which is also still ongoing," said Budi in Jakarta, Tuesday (21/10/2025).
