Prabowo-Gibran's One-Year Performance Report Card, Year-End Stimulus Splash

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The following is important information related to the development of the business universe that needs attention today based on the curation of the SUAR Team.

One-Year Performance Report Card of the Prabowo Administration: Moderate, Homework in Job Creation

The performance of the Prabowo-Gibran administration up to one year, precisely on Monday, October 20, 2025, is considered stable and there is still room for improvement. The results of research by the independent institution IndoStrategi revealed that, in general, the Prabowo-Gibran administration received an average score of 3.07 on a scale of 0–5. A scale of 0 indicates very poor and a scale of 5 indicates very good.
Achievements in various economic aspects, including investment and economic growth, received a score of 3.09, food price stability scored 3.00, goods price stability 3.00, but the job creation score was only 2.65.

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Year-End Stimulus Targets Graduates and New Recipients, Boosts Purchasing Power

The government has again launched economic stimulus in the form of Direct Cash Assistance for People's Welfare (BLTS Kesra) and internship programs for university graduates. Targeting segments of society who have never received assistance and new graduates, this stimulus worth IDR 30 trillion is expected to boost purchasing power in Q4-2025. In addition, starting October 20, the government will implement a paid internship program with 20,000 participants. In the second wave, which will be held next month, there will be an additional 80,000 participants.

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Notes from the Realization of High Investment Growth

The Ministry of Investment and Downstream Industries/Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) noted that in Q3-2025, investment realization reached IDR 491.4 trillion, up 13.9% YoY. In detail, 56.86% came from domestic investment (PMDN), marking the highest record since 2007.
For the first time in the last decade, more than half of national investment flowed outside Java. Of the total IDR 491.4 trillion, around IDR 256.8 trillion or 54.09% of capital was invested outside Java, the highest figure in the last ten years.

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VAT Incentive for Houses Continues, Stimulating the Property Sector

The government has officially extended the government-borne value-added tax (VAT-DTP) policy of 100% for the purchase of landed houses and apartments until December 2027. Initially, this incentive was only valid until the end of 2026. This step was taken by the government to maintain people's purchasing power and encourage the property sector, which is considered to have a large multiplier effect on the economy. The incentive is given for houses with a maximum price of IDR 5 billion, with VAT exemption for the first IDR 2 billion.
Property developers welcome this policy because its impact is directly felt by buyers through a decrease in effective prices. This policy is positive for encouraging consumer decisions in making purchases.

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Intensify the Eradication of Illegal Cigarettes, Excise Revenue will Increase

As of September 30, state revenue from customs and excise reached Rp 221.3 trillion, or 71.3% of the outlook target in the semester report. Compared to the same period last year, this achievement grew by 7.1%. Nevertheless, the portion of customs and excise revenue is only about 12% of total state revenue, falling short of tax revenue dominance.
The increase in excise revenue was influenced, among other things, by the intensified crackdown on illegal cigarettes by the Directorate General of Customs and Excise (DJBC). Over the past 9 months, the DJBC has managed to secure approximately 816 million illegal cigarettes. This number increased by 37% annually and is the highest enforcement result in the last five years. The crackdown on illegal cigarettes was dominated by machine-made kretek cigarettes (SKM) and machine-made white cigarettes (SPM) without excise stamps (plain).

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Danantara Business Forum 2025: This strategic forum, organized by the Indonesian Young Entrepreneurs Association (Hipmi) in collaboration with Danantara, will be held on Monday, October 20, 2025, from 08.00-21.00 WIB, at the Grand Ballroom of the Kempinski Hotel Indonesia, Jakarta. The aim is to bring together leaders from across sectors (government, Danantara, private sector, and young entrepreneurs) to discuss a new direction for Indonesia's economic transformation towards a Golden Indonesia 2045. This forum raises three main issues: Industrial Downstreaming, Food Independence, and Digital Technology Acceleration. These three themes will be discussed through three main panel discussions featuring ministerial-level speakers, such as Dr. Bahlil Lahadalia (Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources) and Dr. Ir. H. Andi Amran Sulaiman (Minister of Agriculture), as well as a leader talk from Prof. Dr. Ir. H. Sufmi Dasco Ahmad (Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives) and a keynote speaker from Rosan Perkasa Roeslani (CEO of BPI Danantara Indonesia).

Quarterly Banking Survey Report QIII-2025: Bank Indonesia (BI) will release an important publication on Monday, October 20, 2025, providing indications of the prospects and operational conditions of banking in Indonesia. This periodic report covers key developments in the quarter, especially regarding expectations and realization of new bank lending, assessment of bank lending standards. In addition, there are views from bank respondents regarding the outstanding credit outlook until the end of the year, which overall is very important for assessing the stability and growth of national financial sector intermediation. This report can be accessed directly through the official Bank Indonesia website.