Prabowo-Gibran's One-Year Performance Report Card, Year-End Stimulus Splash

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The following is important information related to the development of the business universe that needs attention today based on the curation of the SUAR Team.

Prabowo administration's one-year performance report card: Moderate, Job Creation

The performance of the Prabowo-Gibran government up to one year, on Monday, October 20, 2025, is considered stable and there is still room to grow. The results of research by independent organization IndoStrategy revealed that, in general, the Prabowo-Gibran government received an average score of 3.07 on a scale of 0-5. Scale 0 indicates very bad and scale 5 indicates very good.
Achievements in various aspects of the economy, including investment and economic growth scored 3.09, food price stability scored 3.00, goods price stability 3.00, but the score for job creation was only 2.65.

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Year-end Stimulus Targets New Graduates and Recipients, Lifting Purchasing Power

The government has launched another economic stimulus in the form of the People's Welfare Social Cash Transfer (BLTS Kesra) and an internship program for university graduates. Targeting the segment of the community that has never received it at all and new graduates, this Rp 30 trillion stimulus is expected to boost purchasing power in the fourth quarter of 2025. In addition, starting October 20, the government will implement a paid internship program with 20,000 participants. The second batch, which will be held next month, will have an additional 80,000 participants.

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Notes from High-Growth Investment Realization

The Ministry of Investment and Downstream Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) noted that in the third quarter of 2025, investment realization reached IDR 491.4 trillion, up 13.9% YoY. When broken down, 56.86% came from domestic investment (PMDN), setting the highest record since 2007.
For the first time in a decade, more than half of the national investment flowed outside Java. Of the total IDR 491.4 trillion, around IDR 256.8 trillion or 54.09% of the capital was invested outside Java, the highest figure in the last ten years.

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Home VAT Incentive Continues, Exciting the Property Sector

The government has officially extended the 100% government-borne value-added tax (VAT-DTP) policy for the purchase of landed houses and apartments until December 2027. Initially, this incentive was only valid until the end of 2026. This step was taken by the government to maintain people's purchasing power and encourage the property sector, which is considered to have a large multiplier effect on the economy. The incentive is given for houses with a maximum price of IDR 5 billion, with VAT exemption for the first IDR 2 billion.
Property developers welcome this policy because the impact is directly felt on the buyer's side through a decrease in effective prices. This policy is positive to encourage consumer decisions in making purchases.

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Selected Videos: Pelindo's Merger Move, Improving Performance Without Layoffs

Illegal Cigarette Eradication Intensified, Excise Revenue to Rise

As of 30 September, state revenue from customs and excise was realized at IDR 221.3 trillion or 71.3% compared to the outlook target for the semester report. Compared to the same period last year, this achievement grew 7.1%. However, the portion of customs and excise revenue is only around 12% of total state revenue. Losing to the dominance of tax revenue.
The increase in excise revenue was partly influenced by the crackdown on illegal cigarettes by the Directorate General of Customs and Excise (DGCE). During the last 9 months, DGCE managed to secure around 816 million illegal cigarettes. This number increased by 37% on an annual basis and became the highest prosecution result in the last five years. The prosecution of illegal cigarettes is dominated by machine-made clove cigarettes (SKM) and machine-made white cigarettes (SPM) without excise tax (plain).

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Danantara Business Forum 2025: This strategic forum organized by the Indonesian Young Entrepreneurs Association (Hipmi) and Danantara will be held on Monday, (20/10/2025), 08.00-21.00 WIB, at the Grand Ballroom Kempinski Hotel Indonesia, Jakarta. It aims to bring together cross-sector leaders (government, Danantara, private sector, and young business actors) to discuss the new direction of Indonesia's economic transformation towards the Golden Indonesia 2045. The forum raised three main issues, namely Industrial Downstreaming, Food Independence, and Acceleration of Digital Technology. The three themes will be discussed through three main discussion panels featuring ministerial-level speakers, such as Dr. Bahlil Lahadalia (Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources) and Dr. Ir. H. Andi Amran Sulaiman (Minister of Agriculture), as well as a leader talk from Prof. Dr. Ir. H. Sufmi Dasco Ahmad (Vice Chairman of the House of Representatives) and a keynote speaker from Rosan Perkasa Roeslani (CEO of BPI Danantara Indonesia).

Banking Survey Report Q3-2025: Bank Indonesia (BI) on Monday, 20/10/2025, will release an important publication that provides an indication of the prospects and operating conditions of banks in Indonesia. This periodic report covers key developments in the quarter, especially regarding expectations and realization of new banklending, assessment oflending standards applied by banks. In addition, there are bank respondents' views on the prospects of outstanding loans until the end of the year, which are overall very important to assess the stability and growth of national financial sector intermediation. This report can be accessed directly through Bank Indonesia's official website.