The Indonesian Estate Crop Statistics report from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) in 2024 showed that Indonesia produced 617,112 tons of cocoa dry beans. This amount decreased by 2.37% from the previous year. When compared to the production volume of other cocoa producing countries such as Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, which are relatively stable or increasing, Indonesia's cocoa production trend data has actually decreased in recent years.
Price fluctuations on the international market, especially the drastic decline during 2025, have had a double impact. That is, it depresses farmers' income while threatening the national productivity improvement program.
The movement of cocoa prices throughout 2025 can be seen in two halves. At the beginning of the year, world cocoa prices peaked at over USD 11,623 per ton in the first week of January. This drastic increase was triggered by the El Nino phase, which triggered extreme weather in West Africa. Drought and plant diseases caused by this climate phenomenon affected the quantity of cocoa production.
Midway through the year, prices began to correct sharply, reaching a low of USD $5,858 per ton in mid-October 2025. This reflected a large correction of almost 50% from the peak at the beginning of the year. The main cause of the price drop was the surplus supply coming from the West African region, supported by changing climate conditions.
For Indonesia, the decline in global prices due to surpluses from other countries has different impacts on the upstream and downstream sectors. The downstream industry (processing cocoa into chocolate and powder products) has benefited relatively because it can obtain raw materials at a cheaper price. However, in the farmer-driven upstream sector, the situation is the opposite.
Cocoa farmers are facing financial challenges as buying prices at the domestic level plummet, while most of them lack adequate risk protection. This condition also has the potential to cause cocoa bean exporters to withhold exports as the government's benchmark export price (HPE) becomes unfavorable, especially with the export duty remaining in place.
The fluctuating price situation that tends to decline is a challenge that is not easy for Indonesia because the national cocoa production trend is also declining. For the long term, efforts must be made to anticipate price and climate fluctuations so that cocoa farmers do not lose out.
Strategies such as accelerating crop rejuvenation and rehabilitation programs to increase the productivity of aging farms, to improving bean quality through fermentation to create added value and product differentiation should be undertaken. By focusing on quality and improving upstream efficiency, Indonesia can reduce vulnerability to raw commodity prices and strengthen its position as a cocoa and sustainable player in the global market.
