2025 State Budget Performance Projections and 2026 Economic Estimates

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The following is important information related to the development of the business universe that needs attention today based on the curation of the SUAR Team.

The State Budget Deficit of IDR 479.7 Trillion is still manageable

The Ministry of Finance reported on Thursday (20/11) that financial and fiscal performance is still considered prudent. This achievement provides more room for maneuver for the government to respond to uncertain global economic dynamics.
The October 2025 State Budget Report shows that the state budget deficit as of October 31, 2025 reached IDR 479.7 trillion, or 2.02% of gross domestic product (GDP). Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said that this deficit ratio is still far below the threshold of the outlook projection.

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IMF: Indonesia Remains a Bright Spot, Need to Strengthen Effectiveness

The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) latest assessment of the Indonesian economy injects optimism regarding the bright economic outlook amidst increasing uncertainty. Several IMF recommendations have even been implemented by the government to strengthen economic resilience. An improved macroeconomic structure is expected to be the foundation for business expansion and a faster economic turnaround.

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Logistics Entrepreneurs Propose Three Institutional Models to Advance the Industry

Supply Chain Indonesia (SCI) proposes three national logistics institutional models as part of the effort to encourage the logistics industry to grow sustainably. First, the Coordinative Model between Coordinating Ministries (Kemenko). This model strengthens the coordination forum across Coordinating Ministries (Economy, Food, and Infrastructure and Regional Development). This model does not require a new institution, but its effectiveness depends on political commitment and formal coordination mechanisms. Second, the National Logistics Agency (Balognas) model. This new institution under the President will integrate data, evaluation and policy on the national logistics system. It will be a clearing house for national logistics policy, as well as a coordination center for inter-coordinating ministries and technical ministries/agencies. Third, the Ministry of Logistics Model. The long-term alternative is a specialized ministry that integrates all logistics functions and strategic national supply chains. However, this model is considered to require greater structural and regulatory changes.

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IESR: Indonesia's Energy Transition is Still Far Behind

Indonesia's energy transition is still below its maximum potential compared to the direction of the global energy transition which has shifted from environmental issues to sustainability. This was conveyed by the Executive Director of the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), Fabby Tumiwa, at an Energy Outlook event in Jakarta.
According to Fabby, the direction of global energy transition is no longer just an environmental issue, but the need to address security of supply, affordability and sustainability. Fabby cited the example of Pakistan, whose solar energy capacity increased to 30% in six years due to the electricity crisis.

Curbing the Rate of Increase in Indonesian Property Prices

Although property prices tend to rise, the rate of increase is relatively lower compared to the same period last year. This slowdown was mainly influenced by slowing price increases in small and medium-sized houses. Quarterly IHPR growth in the third quarter of 2025 was relatively stable at 0.22% (q-t-q) driven by an increase in small and large houses. The medium and large types also showed a similar trend, albeit with a slightly slower rate of increase.
This price increase reflects the steady increase in demand, especially for more affordable properties, as well as the potential for increased construction and land costs to push selling prices up in the developer segment.

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October 2025 Money in circulation report. Bank Indonesia (BI) is scheduled to release its October 2025 Money in Circulation report on Friday, October 21, 2025. This monthly report, which contains information on the development of money supply, liquidity, and interest rates, is crucial as it reflects the current economic conditions and forms the basis for various investment decisions and business policies. For more details, this report can be directly accessed through the official website of Bank Indonesia (BI).

Permata Bank Gaikindo Jakarta Auto Week (GJAW) 2025, the largest and most comprehensive year-end automotive exhibition, will be held on November 21-30, 2025, at ICE BSD City, Tangerang. This prestigious festival will present a variety of the latest automotive, from cars, EVs, motorcycles, to offer a variety of interesting experiences. Visitors can enjoy test drives, exciting community activities, and various attractive offers at the festival. For information related to ticket offers and exhibition layout, you can directly access the Jakarta Auto Week Instagram social media.