The latest report from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) released in early September stated that the national rice harvest in July increased. This increase in production is a reinforcement for food security and an opportunity to stabilize rice prices.
During the January-July 2025 period, Indonesia nationally produced up to 38.07 million tons of milled dry grain. After the bumper harvest in March and April, when paddy production reached 9 million tons, the increase occurred again in July, at 4.81 million tons. It is predicted that the increase will continue in August with production volume reaching 5 million tons.
On an annual basis, this year's production achievements are promising. This is good news amidst the declining trend of annual production, although it is still consistently above the 50 million tons per year mark. The rapid increase is expected to occur in 2025 because the realization until July has reached 38.07 million tons or about 70% of the average rice production in the last 5 years.
This brings hope for achieving national food security. According to the Rice Outlook report by the Ministry of Agriculture, household consumer demand for rice continued to increase during the period 2000-2024, while rice production has not been able to fully meet the demand.
After 2019, rice production was only able to fulfill 94.21% to 97.04% of the overall domestic demand. This gap creates a dependency on imports to cover the remaining 2.85% of the total demand. The increase in production that occurred this year is expected to meet domestic needs independently and reduce dependence on imports.
Another challenge is related to rice prices. Since 2019, rice production has tended to gradually decline, while rice prices have experienced a significant upward trend. The decline in production can be seen from the 2019 figure of 54.6 million tons, which dropped to 53.1 million tons in 2024.
On the other hand, rice prices rose from IDR 12,091.09 per kilogram (2019) to IDR 13,717.00 per kg (2024). Throughout 2025, the price continued to creep up from IDR 13,561 per kg in January and is estimated to be IDR 14,292.00 per kg in August.
The gap between growing demand and stagnant or declining supply can be an obstacle to achieving national food security. The government needs to make breakthroughs to maintain food availability and rice prices.
Increasing production through agricultural innovation, strengthening local food barns, and food diversification are crucial steps. In addition, optimizing the logistics system and national rice reserves are key to reducing price fluctuations.
