Be at the Forefront of Minister Purbaya's Fiscal Policy Anticipation

Good morning Chief...

The following is important information related to the development of the business universe that needs attention today based on the curation of the SUAR Team.

Guarding the Rp 200 Trillion Injection to the Right Target

Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa plans to move IDR 200 trillion from the remaining budget surplus (SAL) held at Bank Indonesia (BI) to commercial banks. This is a positive signal to pursue growth in accordance with the target at the end of the third quarter.
The funds from the state treasury are part of the total Rp 425 trillion cash held at BI. The funds will be injected into the national banking system in the hope of increasing liquidity, thereby stimulating credit demand and triggering the private sector to increase spending.

The business world underlines that this goal will only be achieved if the injection is truly targeted.

Read more here.

Minister of Finance Purbaya and the Direction of Tax Policy

After being sworn in by President Prabowo Subianto on Monday (8/9/2025), Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said that he personally chose not to raise tax rates. "I need to discuss with my friends in the Ministry of Finance. But, in my personal opinion, so far there is no need for it," he said.
The government has set a tax revenue target of IDR 2,357.7 trillion in the 2026 State Budget, up 13.5% compared to the 2025 State Budget. Without an increase in tax rates, the government needs to think of creative ways to boost tax revenue without burdening the public and businesses.

Read more here.

Pertamina's Continued Transformation

PT Pertamina (Persero) continues to transform into a business entity that has a broad economic impact on society. This was conveyed by PT Pertamina (Persero) Director Simon Aloysius Mantiri in a hearing (RDP) with the House of Representatives at Nusantara I Building, Parliament Complex, Jakarta, Thursday (11/9/2025).
Simon stated that currently, Pertamina is strengthening its organizational structure by establishing the Directorate of Business Transformation and Sustainability to align the company's priorities with Danantara's mission. One of them is the integration of downstream businesses that will unite Pertamina Patra Niaga, Pertamina International Refinery, and Pertamina International Shipping. The target is to be completed by the end of 2025.
Continuous transformation efforts have paid off. From January to July 2025, Simon stated, Pertamina managed to record revenues of IDR 672 trillion. The company's financial performance generally remained healthy with net profit after tax growing 6% year on year to US$ 1,597 million.

Read more here.

Anticipate Retail Sales Decline in the Next 3-6 Months

The August 2025 Retail Sales Survey (SPE) released by Bank Indonesia (BI) revealed the sluggishness of the retail business in the near future. Retail business respondents estimated that in the next 3 months (October 2025) and 6 months (January 2026), retail sales will decline. The October 2025 Index of Sales Expectations (IEP) is at 143.0; lower than September's 146.1. Similarly, the January 2026 IEP was at 157.5; down from December 2025's 169.4. Despite the declining position, an index above 100 indicates optimism. While below 100 indicates pessimism.
In a press release, Thursday (11/9/2025), Executive Director of the BI Communication Department Ramdan Denny Prakoso said respondents informed that the decline in October IEP was triggered by a decrease in demand. Meanwhile, the decline in the January 2026 IEP was due to the end of the Christmas and New Year holidays.

Read more here.

Optimism in Pursuit of Food Independence

Compared to other rice-producing countries in ASEAN, Indonesia is not yet fully self-sufficient. However, the trend of rice production is starting to increase, so it will not be long before food self-sufficiency (rice) can be achieved. The December 2024 Agricultural Commodity Outlook (ACO) reported that of all ASEAN members, Indonesia's self-sufficiency ratio (SSR) reached 99.11%. The SSR is expected to increase in 2025 to reach 99.8%. Not only does this bring optimism, it is also a challenge to continue improving the performance of national rice production.
Regarding rice production, among ASEAN countries, Indonesia has a dominant position as the largest producer. In 2023, Indonesia's rice production reached 34.33 million tons, far surpassing other countries such as Vietnam (28.27 million tons) and Thailand (21.86 million tons). Although it dropped to 600,000 tons in 2024, Indonesia's rice production is predicted to increase again in 2025.

Read more here.

OCBC Financial Fitness Index 2025: "Win This Economy by being FUNacially FIT" was organized by OCBC and NielsenIQ (NIQ) Indonesia. Held on Friday, September 12, 2025 starting at 18.00 WIB at the Main Atrium Senayan City, Jakarta, this event aims to present the results of a study on the financial health of the Indonesian people and provide practical inspiration. The speakers for this event are OCBC, NielsenIQ, and content creator Lutfi Afansyah, and will be enlivened by a special performance from Barasuara. Interested participants can attend the event.

An online discussion titled "Indonesia's Cabinet Shakeup: Implications for Governance, Markets & Political Dynamics": Held on Friday, September 12, 2025, at 09.00-10.00 WIB via the Zoom platform, this webinar aims to analyze the impact of cabinet changes on governance, markets, and political dynamics in Indonesia. The discussion will feature expert speakers such as Dr. Ir. Didit Ratam, MBA and Drs. Julian Aldrin Pasha PhD from The Habibie Center, as well as Jahen F Rezki PhD from LPEM UI. For anyone interested in participating in this webinar can access more information on Policyplus social media.

"Winning a hundred victories in a single battle is not the pinnacle of skill. Conquering an enemy without fighting is the pinnacle of skill" (Sun Tzu - Chinese Strategist)