The real sector cannot wait any longer, it must run fast. Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said that real sector businesses have an important role as a contributor to state revenue and the motor of the country's economic growth this year and next year.
"The private sector is the main motor for high growth, because it provides added value and a high multiplier effect. Here, the state budget acts as a catalyst to awaken the role of the private sector," said Purbaya at the DPR Plenary Session, Tuesday (23/9/2025).
The role of real sector expansion is also expected to have a direct and tangible impact in the remaining of this year to boost state revenue. This is because, similar to the state expenditure realization which has not been optimal in the early fourth quarter of 2025, the state revenue realization has only reached half of the established outlook.
Although tax revenues have increased, the state still cannot rely on taxes as the main source of income. The export contribution of commodities with a high multiplier value such as palm oil is also a foundation.
The state of realization of state revenue that has not been optimal was presented by Deputy Minister of Finance III Anggito Abimanyu at the APBN KiTA Press Conference at the Djuanda I Building of the Ministry of Finance, Jakarta, Monday (22/9/2025).
With the realization of state revenue of Rp 1,638.7 trillion or only 57.2% of the 2025 State Budget outlook , according to Anggito, who is currently elected as Chairman of the LPS Board of Commissioners, there are still a number of challenges and opportunities to maximize state revenue until the end of 2025.
In detail, Anggito described the two main sources of state revenue. Namely, tax revenue (PNP) and non-tax revenue (PNBP). In the PNP source, cumulative gross tax revenue grew by 2.1% to Rp 1,442.74 trillion. This figure has consistently grown cumulatively since March, but has only reached 54.7% of the PNP outlook set.
With an average PNP growth of IDR 180.3 trillion every month in 2025, net PNP after deducting restitution will amount to IDR 1,135.44 trillion. Revenue sources that experienced growth include import VAT which grew 15.1% YtD to IDR 203 trillion, income tax (PPh) Article 21 which grew 2.4% YtD to IDR 180.3 trillion, and corporate income tax which grew 7.5% to IDR 279.9 trillion.
"The growth of Income Tax Article 21 by 2.4% and Corporate Income Tax by 7.5% YtD respectively shows that the profitability performance of domestic companies throughout this year is in good condition," Anggito said.
Tax revenue from customs and excise experienced lower growth than last year due to the Lebaran 2024 factor. However, Anggito noted that export duties grew by 71.7% to IDR 18.7 trillion, with an average revenue of IDR 24.4 trillion per month. On a year on year basis, customs revenue grew 6.4% to Rp 194.9 trillion.
"Excise duties did grow lower, but export duties grew higher due to higher CPO prices. CPO prices are currently experiencing growth of up to 16.6%," he explained.
Meanwhile, from PNBP sources, the state received a total of Rp 306.8 trillion. In detail, the contribution of non-oil and gas natural resources PNBP reached IDR 75.6 trillion, oil and gas natural resources PNBP reached IDR 65 trillion, other PNBP IDR 91.9 trillion, and General Service Agency PNBP IDR 62.5 trillion.
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Anggito explained that oil and gas PNBP and BLU PNBP contracted by -6.8% and -4.1%, respectively, due to the decline in revenue due to the volume of oil lifting which only reached 575,400 barrels per day. Thus, it is still below the APBN target of 605,000 barrels per day. In addition, revenue from the provision of goods and banking services also decreased.
"However, non-oil and gas PNBP grew by 1.5%, and Palm Oil Plantation Fund revenue grew by 29.3%. Both are quite significant from the PNBP sector," Anggito concluded.
Hope with challenges
One of the potential gainers of state revenue comes from the palm oil industry sector. As a promising commodity, the contribution of palm oil exports in the form of CPO has the opportunity to become a foundation for increasing state revenues until the end of the coming year.
However, this hope must still be based on reality and look at the concrete challenges currently being faced by the palm oil industry.
Eddy Martono, Chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, said that the trend of palm oil prices growing significantly cannot be separated from the trend of Indonesia's palm oil production which has been stagnant for the past five years. With CPO prices ranging between US$ 1,100-US$ 1,200 per metric ton, production stagnation was also experienced by neighboring Malaysia.
"Prices may be able to break US$ 1,300 per metric ton because world demand continues to increase. Not only palm oil, but also other vegetable oils," Eddy said at the seminar Palm Oil as a Strategic Corridor: Strengthening Indonesia-India Economic and Trade Cooperation held online, Monday (22/9/2025).
Under these circumstances, open access to financing from state banks (Himbara) is no longer an obstacle for palm oil producers in the upstream and downstream sectors. However, Eddy highlighted the uncertainty of regulations governing the status of plantation land.
So far, the status of oil palm plantations categorized as forest areas has prevented smallholder oil palm plantation managers from accessing grants from the Plantation Fund Management Agency. In fact, these funds are urgently needed to rejuvenate 3 million hectares of smallholder oil palm plantations that are already categorized as viable.
"Farmers are reluctant to cut down because they are worried about their daily income. In fact, the productivity of their plantations is already very low, only 10 tons of fresh fruit bunches per hectare per year. Some are below that," said Eddy.
For export orientation, there are two challenges that the government must resolve immediately. First, the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) which states that new palm oil plantations after December 31, 2020 are considered non-compliant with deforestation provisions. Second, the dilemma of CPO export needs with the government's need to increase the biodiesel mix to B50 by 2026.
Eddy underlined that the government's priority will force entrepreneurs to reduce export quotas if production stagnates. This is because the domestic demand for biodiesel mix allocation was raised by the government.
"Indonesia is a major supplier of vegetable oil to the world, so a decline in exports could push global vegetable oil prices up. If not resolved, our exports could be disrupted. So, domestic problems and global regulations must be handled together," he explained.
Look thoroughly
Making one source of revenue the hope of making up for other low revenues may be a short-term solution. However, the precedent created by this policy could have serious implications in the future.
Development Economics Lecturer, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia (FEB UI), Jahen Fachrul Rezki explained that the achievement of almost 60% of state revenue is still low. So, the government needs hard work to increase tax revenue until the end of the year.
"This business cannot stand alone, because without a growing economy, tax revenue will also fall. Low revenue also indicates that the economy is slowing down. So, efforts to encourage and stimulate economic activity are important," said Jahen when contacted by SUAR, Tuesday (23/9/2025).
Sharing Jahen's view, Director of Tax Consultant DDTC Indonesia Bawono Kristiaji predicts that state revenues will not fully reach the target this year. He explained that revenue from tax deposits can still grow, although it is not necessarily able to reach the target of IDR 2,189 trillion.
"This growth opportunity can be driven by the recovery of VAT due to increased consumption towards the end of the year, both cyclical factors such as Christmas and New Year, or commitment to the realization of government spending that can stimulate consumption in general," explained Bawono in Jakarta, Tuesday (23/9).
The customs and excise revenue sector, according to Bawono, can indeed be relied upon because it is experiencing a good growth trend, along with the agenda to eradicate illegal cigarettes that has been launched by Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa. However, from the PNBP source, the hope to patch up revenue must be seen as a whole.
"The reason is that PNBP is strongly influenced by the performance trends of all sectors, especially the current world commodity prices, which in fact are experiencing a downward trend. As a result, the 2025 revenue target is at risk of not being achieved," he said.
