Business activity is expected to experience a slowdown in the fourth quarter. Business players hope that the many incentives and government spending at the end of the year can boost the economy further.
The forecast for the fourth quarter economy to slow down was revealed in the Q3 Business Activity Survey (SKDU) released by Bank Indonesia (BI) Friday, (17/10/2025). In the survey, respondents said that economic conditions in the fourth quarter were positive with a Weighted Net Balance (WNB) value of 10.53%. This figure decreased compared to the third quarter SBT of 11.55% and the second quarter of 11.7%.
SBT is a survey data processing method in which respondents' answers are multiplied by their credit weight to calculate the difference between the percentage of answers that show an increase and a decrease. In simple terms, it means the number of respondents who answered positively minus respondents who answered the opposite.
Executive Director of the BI Communication Department Ramdan Denny Prakoso said that respondents predicted that business activities in the fourth quarter of 2025 would continue to grow positively.
Business activities in the majority of business fields are predicted to continue to grow, especially in the wholesale and retail trade & repair of cars and motorcycles; transportation and warehousing; provision of accommodation and eating and drinking; information and communication sectors.
"This is in line with the increase in activity during the National Religious Holidays (HBKN) Christmas and year-end holidays," Denny said.
Meanwhile, in the third quarter, the utilized production capacity in the third quarter was recorded at 73.84%, a slight increase compared to the second quarter of 2025 which amounted to 73.58%. The business sectors that are still positive include mining and quarrying; and processing industry.
From the aspect of wage development, in the second semester of 2025 it was recorded that it continued to grow even though it slowed down compared to the first semester. This condition is indicated by the Net Balance (SB) in the second semester at 10.49%, down from the first semester SB of 34.91%. Even this position is lower than the SB for semester II-2024 at 12.96%.
The business fields that indicated a slowdown included corporate services; communication information; and other services.
However, the business margin aspect in the second semester of 2025 is estimated at SB 16.70%, higher than the first semester of 2025 at 16.61%. However, this position is still lower than the SB for the second semester of 2024 at 17.92%.
The highest margin was recorded from the business of providing accommodation and eating and drinking; followed by agriculture, forestry, fisheries; real estate.
Meanwhile, the lowest business margins were recorded in the water supply business; waste management, waste, and recycling; government administration, defense, and social security; government administration, defense, social security; and construction.
The SKDU is a quarterly survey calculated from approximately 3,300 business actors spread throughout Indonesia. The calculation method is carried out using the SBT method.
Still from BI research, the Prompt Manufacturing Index (PMI) in the third quarter at 51.66% was higher than the previous quarter of 50.89%. An index above 50% indicates a position of business expansion, while an index below 50% indicates the opposite position.
Meanwhile, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the performance of the processing industry business field is predicted to be maintained and in the expansion phase as reflected in the PMI-BI of 51.36%.
Based on the forming components, several components are forecast to be in the expansion phase with the highest index in the production volume component, followed by the total volume of orders, and the volume of finished goods inventory.
The majority of sub-fields are also predicted to be in the expansion phase, with the highest indexes in the Machinery and Equipment Industry, Leather, Leather Goods and Footwear Industry, and Furniture Industry.
New Economic Stimulus Package Can Encourage the Business World
Chairman of the Indonesian Exporters Association (GPEI) Benny Soetrisno said the performance of the business world is strongly influenced by government policies. The government's plan to issue a new economic stimulus package by the end of 2025 could encourage the sustainability of the business world.
"Although the contents of the stimulus package are not yet clear, business people are still waiting because it can affect further movements," he told SUAR in Jakarta (20/10/2025).
In order for the business world to keep running, it is necessary to carry out export activities, strengthening exports must be accompanied by logistical collaboration, prudence in imports, and real support for Indonesia's maritime potential.
According to him, export commodity selection strategies need to be based on Indonesia's natural strengths as well as the needs of the global market.
Indef Economic Observer Eko Listiyanto said that in addition to government policies, the quality of human resources also affects the performance of the business world.Human resources are the key to innovation.
Competence, and team solidity are also crucial for smooth operations and innovation.
"Strong leadership, efficient organizational structures, and structured processes can improve the ability of businesses to respond to change," he told SUAR in Jakarta (20/10/2025).
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Agung Mahesa Fikri
A well-thought-out business plan, including a unique idea and proper market analysis, is the foundation for success. Effective marketing strategies and an understanding of the target market determine the reach and growth of the business.
From the government's side, supporting businesses involves providing training and capacity building for businesses to improve their skills and knowledge, as well as mentoring and technical guidance to help businesses achieve better performance.
Economic Observer of the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) Eko Listiyanto said that in addition to government policies, the quality of human resources also affects the performance of the business world.Human resources are the key to innovation.
Competence, and team solidity are also crucial for smooth operations and innovation.
"Strong leadership, efficient organizational structures, and structured processes can improve a business's ability to respond to change," he told SUAR in Jakarta (20/10).
A well-thought-out business plan, including a unique idea and proper market analysis, is the foundation for success. Effective marketing strategies and an understanding of the target market determine the reach and growth of the business.
From the government's side, supporting businesses involves providing training and capacity building for businesses to improve their skills and knowledge, as well as mentoring and technical guidance to help businesses achieve better performance.
