Preparing for the Economy in 2026

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The following is important information related to the development of the business universe that needs attention today based on the curation of the SUAR Team.

Apindo: 2026 Economy at 5%, Positive Outlook but Remain Vigilant

The Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo) estimates that economic growth in 2026 will be in the range of 5.0% to 5.4% (yoy). This paints a positive outlook, but caution is still needed regarding various potential risks.
However, Apindo warns of potentialgrowth deceleration in the second and third quarters following the easing of seasonal effects, and hopes that policies supporting growth will be implemented. Amid global uncertainty, including geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, and potential policy shocks such as reciprocal tariffs, Apindo considers it important to strengthen industrial competitiveness and anticipate external pressures that could affect trade flows and exchange rates.

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Tips for Overcoming the Flood of Imports of Raw Materials and Medical Equipment Products

The domestic medical device industry still faces classic challenges, namely high dependence on imports of raw materials and finished products. The solution to this problem is to strengthen the domestic industry and enhance cross-sector collaboration. Data from the Ministry of Health shows that total annual health spending reaches Rp 560 trillion–Rp 580 trillion. This represents a huge opportunity for the national medical device industry.

Bioethanol Can Save the Country Rp 46.5 Trillion per Year in Foreign Exchange

The government has the potential to save up to Rp 46.5 trillion per year by innovating a 5% bioethanol blend in gasoline, or E5, while also creating 75,000 new jobs. A report titled Revitalizing Bioethanol: The Path to Energy Independence, published by Medco on Monday (December 8, 2025), states that fuel imports continue to increase due to domestic gasoline consumption reaching 36 kiloliters (kL) per year. This is further eroding foreign exchange reserves allocated for fuel imports and subsidies.

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Pursuing High Growth, Danantara Involves the Private Sector

On Monday (December 8, 2025), the Danantara Investment Management Agency stated that it is ready to share its role with the private sector in attracting investors and maintaining domestic market confidence to achieve 8% economic growth by 2029. Meanwhile, expanding the co-investment strategy with foreign partners and improving the domestic business climate are two top priorities that need to be addressed immediately.

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Surplus in the Wood Pulp Commodity Balance and Challenges Facing the Paper Industry

The Indonesian pulp industry has shown positive performance over the past decade. National pulp production has continued to increase, from 5.46 million tons in 2014 to an estimated 10.2 million tons in 2024. The increase in pulp production is supported by the availability of domestic raw materials. Domestic wood pulp production is currently dominated by the timber industry in Sumatra, which accounts for more than 60% of total national timber production. Sumatra's dominance is the backbone in maintaining the supply of raw materials for the downstream pulp and paper industry.
This increase in production has boosted export performance, resulting in a surplus in Indonesia's wood pulp and paper trade balance. The volume of wood pulp and paper exports peaked at 12.52 million tons in 2023. Meanwhile, the highest imports were only 5.61 million tons in 2018.

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Statistical Release on the Status of Workers in Indonesia in August 2025 and Income Statistics in August 2025. The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) is scheduled to release these two data publications on Tuesday, December 9, 2025. These publications are highly anticipated as they describe the demographics of workers in Indonesia, both formal and informal. The publication on the Status of Workers in Indonesia, sourced from the August 2025 National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas), will present data on the number of workers and their characteristics, such as gender, age, education, province, field of work, hours worked per week, type of work, and average monthly wages/salaries/income. Meanwhile, the Income Statistics will provide an overview of sector concentration, income, demographics, and social characteristics of workers who are not employees (self-employed/freelance workers). Both publications can be accessed directly through the official website of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS).

The Indonesia SEZ Business Forum 2025 will be held by Indonesia SEZ in collaboration with the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia. This forum, which explores investment opportunities and strategic collaborations in Special Economic Zones (SEZs), will be held on Tuesday, December 9, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. Western Indonesian Time, at The St. Regis, Jakarta. This event is a strategic platform that brings together SEZ developers, business players, and global investors. It is not only a meeting forum, but also includes a series of events such as business dialogues, exhibitions, and one-on-one business matching to open up opportunities for collaboration and accelerate the realization of SEZ investments. Further information about this forum can be accessed directly through Indonesia SEZ's Instagram social media account.